Heute ist der erste "richtige" Konferenztag auf der JAX 08. Und der Tag beginnt mit einer Keynote, womit sonst?

Rod Johnson, SpringSource:
The Future of Enterprise Java

Does enterprise Java have a future?
Third answer: "No one will date a Java Programmer"

Java market is not shrinking and still huge in comparison to e. g. Ruby.
Still growing, but there are strong competitive threats, and Java hasn't fully delivered on its promise, yet.

Forces for change

• Current trends
• Introduction to Java EE 6
• The market scenario

Technology
forces

Six predictions for the future

• plus two totally free bonus predictions

The productivity challange

• Ruby on Rails
• no great leaps forward in enterprise Java for some time
• Java community tends to miss low hanging fruits
  
  Enterprise Java slowed by "baggage", conception is over 10 years old.
  Need of a reaular clean out.
  Java EE 6 is an attempt to clean house; will come out late 2008 or eraly 2009.
  
  Two new philosophies
• Extensibility: more extension points and SPIs, extensions should be as easy to use as build-in features
• Profiles: different sets of platform technology for different purposes, three profiles planed
  see JSR-316
  
  Profile A - minimal, lightweight - Tomcat
  Key element: Servlet 3.0
  biggest change relates to extensibility
  extension at runtime instead of web.xml
  
  Profile B - adds persistance and two (?) component models
  still relativaly lightweight
  many points still unclear, like EJB 3.1 "lite" and Web Beans
  
  Profile C - "Full platform"
  Java EE "classic"
  "Titan nuclear Missle of enterprise Java"
  
  Opposing forces: Modularity and Monopoly
  Java EE 6 promotes modularity
  Current AS market quite consolidated: WebLogic + WebSphere ~70%
  Both market leaders are part of much bigger plays
  Oracle: aggressive vertical play
  IBM: services
  Both see their Java middleware as part of a Microsoft-like full-stack solution
  
  How to measure the market?
  old measurements are obsolete
  
  Predictions
  
  1. Real competition will return to the application server market
  
  Bonus 1: Economic value will become more aligned with what people actually use
  
  2. Tomorrow's application server will be lightweight and modular
  
  3. Tomorrow's application server will not merely implement JCP specifications
  
  Bonus 2: The JCP will change to be run through open source; Sun is becoming an open source company
  
  4. The market will address the gap between Tomcat and WebLogic/WebSphere
  
  5. The gap between application servers and ESBs will be bridged
  
  6. The Black Knight will be defeated
  EJB is dying
  
  
  Why does it matter?
  EJB is the centerpiece of "old J2EE"
  It's vital that it is put aside for progress to be made
  
  
  Conclusion
  Wer are in for a period of rapid change
  Java EE 6 may keep Java EE relevantt, but Java doesn't really shape the future.
  One of the key technologies that will shape the future is OSGi
  It will be an exciting time.