JAX 08: Keynote - The Future of Enterprise Java

von Thomas Bahn,
assono GmbH, Standort Kiel,


Heute ist der erste "richtige" Konferenztag auf der JAX 08. Und der Tag beginnt mit einer Keynote, womit sonst? wink.gif

Rod Johnson, SpringSource:
The Future of Enterprise Java

Does enterprise Java have a future?
Third answer: "No one will date a Java Programmer" biggrin.gif

Java market is not shrinking and still huge in comparison to e. g. Ruby.
Still growing, but there are strong competitive threats, and Java hasn't fully delivered on its promise, yet.

Forces for change

  • Current trends
  • Introduction to Java EE 6
  • The market scenario

Technology
forces

Six predictions for the future

  • plus two totally free bonus predictions

The productivity challange

  • Ruby on Rails
  • no great leaps forward in enterprise Java for some time
  • Java community tends to miss low hanging fruits

    Enterprise Java slowed by "baggage", conception is over 10 years old.
    Need of a reaular clean out.
    Java EE 6 is an attempt to clean house; will come out late 2008 or eraly 2009.

    Two new philosophies
  • Extensibility: more extension points and SPIs, extensions should be as easy to use as build-in features
  • Profiles: different sets of platform technology for different purposes, three profiles planed
    see JSR-316

    Profile A - minimal, lightweight - Tomcat
    Key element: Servlet 3.0
    biggest change relates to extensibility
    extension at runtime instead of web.xml

    Profile B - adds persistance and two (?) component models
    still relativaly lightweight
    many points still unclear, like EJB 3.1 "lite" and Web Beans

    Profile C - "Full platform"
    Java EE "classic"
    "Titan nuclear Missle of enterprise Java"

    Opposing forces: Modularity and Monopoly
    Java EE 6 promotes modularity
    Current AS market quite consolidated: WebLogic + WebSphere ~70%
    Both market leaders are part of much bigger plays
    Oracle: aggressive vertical play
    IBM: services
    Both see their Java middleware as part of a Microsoft-like full-stack solution

    How to measure the market?
    old measurements are obsolete

    Predictions

    1. Real competition will return to the application server market

    Bonus 1: Economic value will become more aligned with what people actually use

    2. Tomorrow's application server will be lightweight and modular

    3. Tomorrow's application server will not merely implement JCP specifications

    Bonus 2: The JCP will change to be run through open source; Sun is becoming an open source company

    4. The market will address the gap between Tomcat and WebLogic/WebSphere

    5. The gap between application servers and ESBs will be bridged

    6. The Black Knight will be defeated
    EJB is dying


    Why does it matter?
    EJB is the centerpiece of "old J2EE"
    It's vital that it is put aside for progress to be made


    Conclusion
    Wer are in for a period of rapid change
    Java EE 6 may keep Java EE relevantt, but Java doesn't really shape the future.
    One of the key technologies that will shape the future is OSGi
    It will be an exciting time.
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